Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
